Prediction
Partial
The next 7-Eleven is a 'cloud corner store' with drone delivery
Shaan predicts convenience retail goes dark: a ~500 sq ft automated stockroom within a mile of you, in cheap back-alley real estate, that dispenses items vending-machine-style and delivers via small carrier drones in under 15 minutes with no humans involved.
“This one is, um, it's a cloud corner store, so you don't need a real location. It's just going to be 500 square feet that's within 1 mile of you. It might be in this back alley place. It doesn't need a good location, and it's going to deliver to you with small lightweight drones. So small little pass— a small little carrier drone going to bring you something within 15 minutes of ordering.”
Story
Liquid Death launched on Facebook before it had any product
Knowing no one would fund a 'negative name' water brand, Mike de-risked it by proving the concept on social first. A $1,500 video plus ~$3,000 in Facebook ads got 3 million views and more followers than Aquafina in three months, plus inbound DMs from 7-Eleven franchisees and major NYC distributor Big Geyser, all before any product existed.
“We shot a $1,500 video and then We just put it on Facebook, no Twitter, no Instagram, just Facebook. We put maybe, I don't know, $3,000 in paid media behind the video. And then cut to 3 months later, we have more Facebook followers than Aquafina. The video has 3 million views.”
Steal thisValidate a risky product as a concept on social media before you build inventory; use the traction to de-risk the raise.
Number
The US bottled water market is $20 billion a year
Mike sizes the opportunity: in 2019 the US bottled water market alone was $20 billion, with still water just under $15 billion and sparkling about $3.5 billion. Convenience stores are the largest channel by doors at over 150,000 locations.
$20000M
US bottled water market size (2019) · USD/year
“the bottled water market in the US alone was $20 billion for just bottled water. Wow. Still water made up a little under $15 billion of that $20, and sparkling is about $3.5 billion.”