UFC

Inflections: be in the game when the cork pops

Sam channels Mike Maples' inflection framework — cultural, technological, or regulatory shifts (telemedicine, sports gambling, UFC legalization, the NCAA rule change) — arguing big businesses get built by founders positioned the moment the regulation cork pops out of the bottle.

“This is a perfect example of a regulation/political inflection that big businesses are built in times like this. I'm not going to be the one because I don't care about this, but this is the type of inflection that we're going to look back. Same with sports gambling, you know, those guys have been at it for years and years and years and it was pretty horrible businesses, I believe, for a long time. Something changed. Boom, they took off. Same with the UFC.”

Steal thisTrack regulatory and platform inflections (read Politico for law changes) and position yourself to pounce the moment one opens.

The long-lost brother who told Michael Buffer to trademark his catchphrase

Bruce Buffer discovered through his dad that boxing announcer Michael Buffer was his half-brother, became his manager, and convinced him to trademark 'Let's get ready to rumble' and license merchandise. Bruce later became the UFC announcer earning $50K-$100K a fight.

“So Bruce then goes to Michael and he says, Michael, you're doing great, but you have no, like, business manager. I'll be your manager. And he's like, okay, what does that mean? He goes, dude, you need to trademark this phrase. This is your catchphrase. So he applies for the trademark, he gets it, and then he basically says, takes that trademark and he starts licensing out merchandise, you know, hats, shirts, video games, everything.”

Thug Rose shaved her head to reject UFC's sex-appeal marketing

The UFC initially marketed female fighters on sex appeal (bikini weigh-ins), and some leaned in. Rose Namajunas went the opposite way, shaving her head and refusing Dancing with the Stars to be taken seriously as a martial artist.

“Rose went the other way. She's a beautiful girl and they were like, oh, do you want to go to Dancing with the Stars? You want to like, we can make you into a star. And she's like, fuck that. Shaved her head and was like, I don't want this. The whole beauty thing is a distraction. I'm actually trying to be a martial artist.”

Dana White's 180: 'nobody wants to see girls fighting in a cage'

Dana White once told TMZ women would never fight in the UFC because nobody wanted to see it. He reversed completely when Ronda Rousey emerged as a star he could build an entire division around.

“Dana White was kind of famously— was once stopped by TMZ and they were like, Dana, when will we see women fighting in the UFC? And he was like, never, dude. We don't want to see— nobody wants to see girls fighting in a cage. And And then he like, you know, did a complete 180, like to his credit, changed his mind when he— when Ronda Rousey came around, was like, okay, she's a star, I can build this whole side of the sport around this woman.”

UFC does ~$900M revenue at 30% EBITDA, fighters get just 20%

Endeavor's IPO exposed the UFC's financials for the first time: revenue grew $700M → $875M → $900M (2018-2020) with ~30% EBITDA margins. Fighters take home only 20% of revenue versus the roughly 50/50 split in the NFL and NBA.

“So $700 million, $875 million, and then $900 million last year. Wow. So very close on revenue, but their margins are a lot better than you think. So you were saying $200 million. Yeah. So, so their margins are about 36%. So they have 30% EBITDA on their product, which is very good. Fighters only get 20% of revenue. Every other major sport, NFL, NBA, it's closer to 50-50.”

ESPN pays UFC $300M/year for media rights, up from Fox's $168M

The UFC's broadcast rights jumped from $168M/year on Fox to $300M/year when they moved to ESPN — and that $300M of media rights makes up a third of the UFC's ~$900M annual revenue.

“so it's the Fox deal was $168 million a year and then the ESPN deal was $300 million a year. And that actually paid off pretty big because of their $900 million in revenue, $300 million comes from the media rights. The rest comes from merchandise, events, pay-per-view, sorry, ticket sales, all that good stuff.”

Bought the UFC for $2M, sold it for $4-5 billion

Dana White convinced casino-owning childhood friends the Fertitta brothers (Frank and Lorenzo) to buy the bankrupt UFC for $2 million ~25 years ago. After pouring in money through years of losses, they sold it for $4-5 billion.

“Frank and Lorenzo were the ones who Dana convinced, hey, let's go buy the UFC. So they bought it for $2 million, and now— and then they ended up selling it for $4 to $5 billion.”

One reality TV fight saved the UFC from bankruptcy

After ~6 years of losses, the UFC convinced Spike TV to air The Ultimate Fighter. The Forrest Griffin fight made viewers see the competitors as athletes rather than thugs, ratings spiked, and that single fight turned the company around.

“And by like year 6, they convinced Spike TV, which I don't even know that's a thing anymore, to air The Last Fighter or The Ultimate Fighter. Yep. And there was— it was Forrest Griffin and I forget the other guy's name, um, and they had this big fight. And I remember as a kid watching that. Yeah, I remember that fight as a kid. These guys were going at it. They looked like it was the first time that like we thought, wow, they're like athletes.”

Every emerging sport needs its Dana White

An investor told Shaan that esports 'needs its Dana White' — a take-no-prisoners operator who drags a sport from the underground and brick-by-brick builds it into a mainstream commercial brand, the way Dana did for the UFC.

“He goes, esports needs its Dana White. It needs its person who's going to take this sport from just the underground and brick by brick build it into a mainstream brand and like take no prisoners and like organize the whole fucking thing along the way.”

Steal thisWhen evaluating a nascent category, ask who the singular operator-builder is — without a Dana White, the upside stays trapped underground.

Watch elections (and everything) with your favorite small influencers

Shaan argues the future of consuming live events is doing it alongside niche influencers you care about, citing the All In podcast's election coverage and Joe Rogan's 500K concurrent livestream viewers. He frames 'co-watching with your tribe' as a rising business opportunity.

“Joe Rogan had half a million concurrent viewers on his livestream for the election, where he was just shooting the shit with his friends, talking about it. The UFC, often when there's a UFC fight, there's also the Fight Companion, which is always big, and it's just Joe Rogan and his friends getting drunk, eating cheese, and watching the fights together. It's way more fun than the official broadcast. And so I just think this is an interesting trend in a business, in a business opportunity that will continue to rise over time, which is like consuming stuff with the kind of little influencers that you care about.”

Steal thisBuild a product around co-watching live events with niche creators instead of official broadcasts.

Why UFC's $10K base can never rise: infinite supply

Askren explains the structural reason fighter pay stays low: there are over a thousand fighters praying for a call, so the supply of labor is effectively infinite and the floor never moves without a competing league.

“And the reason that number, that 10-10, will never go up by that much is like there's 1,000 other dudes, maybe more, who are just freaking waiting and praying that the UFC calls their phone and offers them that 10-10. So that 10-10 could never go up because it's a supply and demand, and the supply is, is so enormous that, that it's that base number.”

Steal thisBefore betting on a market, count the supply of substitutes; infinite supply caps your price no matter how good you are.

Why UFC's $10K base can never rise: infinite supply

Askren explains the structural reason fighter pay stays low: there are over a thousand fighters praying for a call, so the supply of labor is effectively infinite and the floor never moves without a competing league.

“And the reason that number, that 10-10, will never go up by that much is like there's 1,000 other dudes, maybe more, who are just freaking waiting and praying that the UFC calls their phone and offers them that 10-10. So that 10-10 could never go up because it's a supply and demand, and the supply is, is so enormous that, that it's that base number.”

Steal thisBefore betting on a market, count the supply of substitutes; infinite supply caps your price no matter how good you are.

Askren: ~20-25% of UFC fighters on PEDs now, 60-70% pre-USADA

In the speed round, Askren estimates roughly 20-25% of current UFC fighters are on performance-enhancing drugs, but says before USADA testing he'd have guessed 60-70%.

“I would say 20 to 25, but Pre-USADA, I would have said 60 to 70.”