Number
Phantom Secure: $80M from 20,000 criminals at $4,000 per user
The encrypted-phone service Phantom Secure had 20,000 users and made $80M — about $4,000 per user, versus roughly $2 per user for WhatsApp. Shaan calls it an enterprise product for criminals.
$4K
Revenue per user · USD/user
“Phantom Secure at its peak had 20,000 users. It made $80 million off those 20,000 users. So just for like math because you would pay to use it, right? Because for you, you're like, this is a business tool for me. If I'm a criminal, I need secure messaging. I'll pay for this. And so they were making $4,000 per user. And just for like comparison, WhatsApp makes like $2 per user.”
Fact
Even Sequoia has a graveyard: social bets are nearly impossible to call early
Jack Smith's point, via Shaan: even Sequoia, who led every WhatsApp round into a ~$19-20B exit, also funded social flops like Yik Yak and Whisper. If the best investors swing and miss this much on social, predicting a social hit before it plays out is essentially impossible.
“if even the best guys who have had the home runs have a bunch of swings and misses with social, it just shows how hard it is to correctly predict social before it plays out.”
Fact
The Forbes list says brand acquisition beats real estate and funds
Tai argues that studying the Forbes list reveals where wealth concentrates: the first real-estate name is #102, fund managers cluster at the bottom, and brand acquisition or founding is the most correlated activity. He cites Zuckerberg's Instagram and WhatsApp buys.
“nobody makes money on the top of the Forbes list from real estate. Number one, the first American that shows up on the Forbes list from real estate is number 102. Number 102. In fact, the most correlated activity with building wealth is brand acquisition or brand founding. But brand acquisition is massive if you look at the Zuckerberg's really been an acquirer, and without Instagram, he would— and WhatsApp, Facebook would be worth a third at best.”
Steal thisStudy the Forbes list for what actually correlates with wealth instead of trusting your intuition about real estate or funds.