Framework
Inflections: be in the game when the cork pops
Sam channels Mike Maples' inflection framework — cultural, technological, or regulatory shifts (telemedicine, sports gambling, UFC legalization, the NCAA rule change) — arguing big businesses get built by founders positioned the moment the regulation cork pops out of the bottle.
“This is a perfect example of a regulation/political inflection that big businesses are built in times like this. I'm not going to be the one because I don't care about this, but this is the type of inflection that we're going to look back. Same with sports gambling, you know, those guys have been at it for years and years and years and it was pretty horrible businesses, I believe, for a long time. Something changed. Boom, they took off. Same with the UFC.”
Steal thisTrack regulatory and platform inflections (read Politico for law changes) and position yourself to pounce the moment one opens.
Framework
Mike Maples' inflections: bet on what becomes possible in 10 years
Sam relays Mike Maples' early-stage framework: you can't predict winners, so look for inflections that will make new things possible in 10 years and invest ahead of them. Uber's inflection was every phone getting GPS.
“So I try to use some frameworks and I just basically think like, you know, what interesting things, what interesting inflections are going to happen in 10 years that's going to make X, Y, and Z possible, but it's not possible right now. And I'm going to try and get into it. So like, for example, Uh, Uber, what made it possible was everyone started having really great phones that had GPS in it.”
Steal thisInvest ahead of inflections — find what a coming shift makes newly possible, then get in before it's obvious.
Framework
Don't think of a startup; find the inflection
Maples tells founders not to brainstorm startups directly, because that anchors you to the present and yields incremental ideas. Instead, identify massive inflections or waves of change, which let an entrepreneur wage 'asymmetric warfare on the present' and gain advantage over incumbents.
“I say, if you wanna start a great startup, Don't try to think of a startup. And, uh, the reason for that is that, um, great startup founders are like time travelers, and they, they get out of the present and they visualize different futures that are a breakthrough, that break free from the present.”
Steal thisStart from the inflection (a wave of change) and ask what new markets it unlocks, rather than starting from a product idea.
Story
Suli quit, got bored, and rode the Facebook platform launch to millions of users
Shaan tells how Suli quit Microsoft, moved home, and the day he quit Facebook announced its developer platform. To knock off the rust he built a silly superlatives app ('which friend ends up in jail'), it went viral to tens of millions of users, and Naval flew him out to invest.
“And so he builds a Facebook app that was stupid. It was like a superlatives app, like which of your friends is most likely to end up in jail or whatever. Boom, goes viral. He ends up with tens of millions of users. And that changed the trajectory of his life where Silicon Valley starts calling him and Naval flies him out to San Francisco and wants to invest in him and shit like that. So he took a bet on the sort of day the platform launched.”
Steal thisWhen a major platform opens its developer API, build something on day one to ride the early distribution wave.
Story
Suli quit, got bored, and rode the Facebook platform launch to millions of users
Shaan tells how Suli quit Microsoft, moved home, and the day he quit Facebook announced its developer platform. To knock off the rust he built a silly superlatives app ('which friend ends up in jail'), it went viral to tens of millions of users, and Naval flew him out to invest.
“And so he builds a Facebook app that was stupid. It was like a superlatives app, like which of your friends is most likely to end up in jail or whatever. Boom, goes viral. He ends up with tens of millions of users. And that changed the trajectory of his life where Silicon Valley starts calling him and Naval flies him out to San Francisco and wants to invest in him and shit like that. So he took a bet on the sort of day the platform launched.”
Steal thisWhen a major platform opens its developer API, build something on day one to ride the early distribution wave.
Idea
Virtual escape room over Zoom strips out rent and staff costs
Shaan highlights Moonshot, a virtual escape room run entirely over Zoom for about $300, sold as corporate team-building. It keeps the good economics of escape rooms while removing their two biggest costs: physical rent and the human facilitator.
“So what Moonshot is, it's a virtual escape room that happens over Zoom. So it costs, uh, I think, I think it's like $300 to do the experience, But it's great, you know, that as a team building experience, a team building cost is nothing.”
Steal thisTake an offline experience business and rebuild it digitally to delete its rent and labor costs.