Mark Twain

No sentence starting "I could be wrong, but" ever got anyone into trouble

Citing Mark Twain, Marks says certainty causes more damage than ignorance. Betting as if you're 100% right on what turns out to be an 80/20 proposition is how investors get into big trouble.

“But Mark Twain says, it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for certain that just ain't true. And I always tell people, in line with what you just said, Jon, no sentence that starts with, I could be wrong, but, or, I don't know, but, ever got anybody into trouble. The sentences that get people into trouble are, I'm 100% convinced that...”

Steal thisSize bets to the real odds, not your confidence. Open your investment memos with "I could be wrong, but..."