Nick Bostrom

Bostrom's trilemma: one real world vs. a billion simulated ones

Nick Bostrom's simulation argument offers three possibilities: no civilization can build ancestor simulations, those that can choose not to, or we are almost certainly in one. If one simulation is possible, billions are, and base-rate odds say you're far likelier to be in a simulated world than the single physical one.

“And the third option, it seems like a jump there, but basically what he's saying is that if they can create one simulation, they can create multiple simulations and they can create a billion simulations. So there's a billion simulated worlds. There's only one physical world. Statistically speaking, which one are you more likely to be in if, and this is the point, the leap that I think most people have a tough time making.”

Steal thisWhen judging 'is this the real one?', count how many copies could exist: if one is possible, base rates favor being a copy.