Meta

Within 12 months, Meta ads will sell oxytocin as a divorce cure

After describing people on the oxytocin subreddit who keep dose-by-dose journals, Sam predicts the hormone will go mainstream quickly enough that within a year he and his listeners will be seeing Meta ads pitching it as a fix for divorce.

“I noticed that I struggled to make eye contact with my children most of the time. Now it was way easier to make eye contact, and I had a significantly better conversation. Like, they're documenting this, and it's so interesting to me. I would not be surprised if in 12 months you and me and our listener are going to get a lot of Meta ads saying this will cure divorce or something like that.”

Meta stock rose 24% in a month on its Muse assistant (~$500B added)

After Meta launched Muse, its AI personal assistant, the stock rose 24% in a month. Shaan estimates that added roughly $500 billion in market cap to a company worth about $1.5 trillion.

“But Meta has released Muse, and in the last month, Meta's stock price is up 24% off the back of this. And 24% on a company that was worth, I don't know, a trillion and a half. It's like basically they added like $500 billion in market cap”

Muse began when Zuck installed OpenClaw at home and called in his lieutenants

Zuckerberg set up the DIY open-source agent OpenClaw at home, then invited Nat Friedman and Alexandr Wang over to see it. The goal became making that magic work for billions of people with no setup. Muse now runs every user on their own sandboxed cloud machine.

“Zuck basically said that he installed it at home and then he called Nat Friedman and Alexander Wang over to his house and he showed them what he, what he had. And he basically said, Okay, this thing is pretty magical. If we can take this experience and make it so that everybody can just have it, just works for people, that they don't have to know how to do all the, the underlying setup and training and maintenance and all that. This is something that billions of people will use.”

Steal thisFind a hacker tool that delights tinkerers but needs heavy setup, then package the same experience so it just works for everyone.

Ad buying is a commodity now; the creative does the targeting

Danny Yeung argues that Meta's algorithm has made media buying a commodity, so targeting skill no longer differentiates. What matters is producing strong creatives with enough diversity across customer personas. IM8 runs 2,000–3,000 ads at any time and tests 500–800 creators a week.

“And you have, and right now the reality is even with ad buying, I mean, you know, ad buying is like a commodity right now. Yeah. Before a few years ago, you have to be really, really good at ad buying, but now Meta does all of that for you already, right? You don't need to do the targeting. You don't need to do all this stuff, right? All you need to really figure out is how do you get really good creatives? and really good creative diversity on the different personas because now you need the creative to do the targeting.”

Steal thisShift budget from media-buying expertise to creative volume: build distinct ads for each customer persona and let the platform find the audience.

Ad budgets will shift from paid ads to AI agents making organic content

Jonathan Baer predicts that as AI agents get good at making and posting video, much of the roughly $90B a year spent on Meta, YouTube, and TikTok ads will move to organic content and pay-for-performance agents. He expects the market to reach hundreds of billions by next year.

“So, you know, our view is that as agents get so good at making and posting video content, it actually eats up the amount that's spent on digital advertising. So about $90 billion a year goes towards Meta and YouTube and TikTok ads. And those people are paying for eyeballs. Our view is actually that like a lot of that spending is gonna migrate to organic content and it's going to migrate to paying agents for performance.”

Meta's smart glasses are "one of the worst products I've ever bought"

Adcock pans Meta's glasses: they have no network of their own, depend on the phone app, and take a long time to pair. He argues glasses and pendants are edge accessories rather than the main AI device, says the end state is a brain-computer interface, and doubts glasses will make Hark's top-10 device list.

“In fact, like the Meta glasses are probably one of the worst products I've ever bought. They're just horrible. They're horrible. Like if you, I, I can't even like figure out how to use it. It doesn't have its own network. It piggybacks on the iPhone network. It means your app needs to be open on your phone. The pairing's long. Like, It doesn't work well. Like, I can't think of any reason why I would need this thing strapped to my head for 14 hours a day. Like, it's just like the wrong device.”

Hark lost a senior AI hire to Meta's guaranteed $36M package

Adcock offered a senior AI-infrastructure engineer from xAI $15–20M in Hark Series A stock, pitching that a couple of 10x's could make it worth hundreds of millions or billions. Meta countered with $36M in RSUs over four years, and the candidate took the guaranteed money.

“And he got an offer to go to Meta for $36 million, 4 years of our shoes. And he was just like, it's kind of guaranteed cash. I go there and I have to weigh this, maybe $200 million at Hark or $20 million or maybe $36 for sure at Meta. And he left and went to Meta and they've been doing that. Every candidate we speak to is making some absurd absurd thing.”

Zuckerberg hired mercenaries; 20 to 40 true believers can build the models

Adcock calls Meta's talent-buying spree smart execution by Mark Zuckerberg, but says he would rather hire people who care about the mission than money-driven mercenaries. He estimates only 20–30 people in California really know how to build great models, so a committed team of 20–40 can compete. He also doubts Meta can ship genuinely new products.

“I want to understand it and I want to first order find the right folks that really care deeply about this and not hire mercenaries. And so he hired a bunch of mercenaries. They're just purely money driven. They came over there. Nobody wants to go to Meta. They just said they're going there because they're getting paid a guaranteed RSU package by sitting around. And what's happening is you don't need 1,000 people or 500 or 300 to design AI models. You can make a really good team of 20 or 30 or 40 people.”