Chris Kerner

Porch Pumpkins: a stay-at-home mom doing 7 figures in 3 months

Chris Kerner found a woman who decorates front porches with pumpkin arrangements during fall. The seasonal, highly visual service does seven figures a year across roughly three months and sells itself on short-form video.

“So I'm on Instagram. I see this woman decorating porches with pumpkins. I thought, that's genius. That's brilliant. It's just all visual. It sells really well on short-form video. So I reached out to her, we spoke, learned about her business. She's doing 7 figures a year across 3 months.”

Porch Pumpkins economics: ~1,500 orders at $1,000 each

The porch-pumpkin decorator does 1,300-2,000 orders per year at an average order of $800-$1,200, implying roughly $1.5-2M in annual revenue at about 20% COGS.

“she's doing between 1,300 and 2,000 orders per year. Average order size is $800 to $1,200. Call it $1,000.”

Test organic, then put paid behind the winner in your zip code

Chris's repeatable customer-acquisition method for local high-ticket services: post 5-10 organic videos, see which one pops off, then run paid ad spend behind that proven creative targeted to people in your zip code.

“you post 5 to 10 organic videos, you see which one pops off the most, then you push paid ad spend behind it to people in your zip code.”

Steal thisPost 5-10 organic videos, identify the winner, then geo-target paid spend behind that single proven creative.

Sport courts are the next pools

Chris argues backyard sport courts are following the COVID-era pool boom, with demand outpacing supply. He got quotes of $50-60k, found subcontractors to do it for ~$30k, and is pivoting his tree-trimming company into a sport-court installer.

“They were charging me $50,000 to $60,000. Okay, I can't do that. I can't do that. So I start getting quotes from subcontractors, going on Facebook Marketplace, looking for a concrete guy, a painter, fencing guy, 'cause you want to fence it in so the ball doesn't fly everywhere. And long story short, I got quotes to do all of it, and it's in my backyard right now, for about $30,000.”

Steal thisBe the marketer/GC who subs out concrete, paint, and fencing for backyard sport courts in a market with no established players.

Sell the dream, not the product: Backyard Funhouse upsell ladder

Chris brands the sport-court business Backyard Funhouse and sells the aspiration of the backyard every kid wants to visit. The court is the foot in the door, then you upsell putting green, pool, fire pit, and outdoor kitchen until the customer spends $200k.

“It's called Backyard Funhouse because we're selling the dream. We're, we're not selling sport courts. We're selling— you want the backyard that all your kids' friends want to come to. We're selling the dream. So you start with the sport court, get your foot in the door, then you go putting green, then you go pool, then you go fire pit, outdoor kitchen. And pretty soon they spend $200 grand.”

Steal thisLead with a low-friction first project, then ladder customers up an aspirational menu of backyard upgrades.

Be the in-ground trampoline installer trampolines.com can't find

Trampolines.com can't sell in-ground trampolines without someone to dig the hole, and excavator owners are too busy digging pools. Rent an excavator, take their overflow demand, and earn ~$5,000 per dig for about four hours of work.

“they, they can only sell trampolines that are in ground if they have someone to dig them out. And there's not like the guys that own excavators are too busy digging pools. They have no interest in trampolines. So you don't need to go buy a $100,000 backhoe. You rent one. When you get a job, you dig the sucker out and you get paid 5 grand.”

Steal thisFind an e-commerce brand whose sales are bottlenecked on local install labor and become their certified installer.

What starts in Dubai makes its way to America

Chris's trend-spotting heuristic: Dubai lives ~10 years in the future and experiments constantly. If a consumer trend survives there for 1-3 years, it's likely heading west, so you can front-run it. Examples: Dubai chocolate, perfume vending machines, robotic manicure kiosks.

“So I've been there twice and they just live 10 years in the future. They experiment with all this stuff. They're very entrepreneurial and a lot of the stuff they experiment with never takes off. But if you see it in Dubai for like 1 to 3 years, it's probably coming out west and we can get ahead of the trend.”

Steal thisWatch Dubai consumer trends that have lasted 1-3 years and import the survivors to the US before locals catch on.

Dropship government liquidation items with a vibe-coded agent

Buy TSA-confiscated and Costco-return liquidation goods from sites like GovDeals and B-Stock. Chris suggests vibe-coding an agent that finds local items under your filters, lists them on Facebook Marketplace at an ~80% markup, and only buys once an item gets traction.

“just vibe code an agent that finds items for sale according to your filters, right? Like let's say under $3,000 within 100 miles of your zip code. And then it just posts them all for sale on Facebook Marketplace at a set markup, call it like 80%. And so you just list all these things on Facebook Marketplace and whatever just starts taking off, getting a ton of hits and inquiries, then you actually go spend the money to buy the thing.”

Steal thisList liquidation inventory on Marketplace at a markup before you own it, and only buy items that get real inquiries.

DoorDash for gas: mobile fuel delivery subscription

A mobile fuel-delivery operator tops off customers' tanks on an app-scheduled basis for a markup on gas plus a monthly subscription. Churn is near zero and revenue per customer runs about $5,000 a year.

“The guy just kind of— you have an app, you set up an appointment, he'll come top off your tank, you pay a markup on the gas, and then you pay a monthly subscription fee. His, I think his lifetime value or his revenue per year per customer is $5,000 and his lifetime value is super high.”

RV/mobile-home parks hedge the economy both ways

Chris's favorite asset class: with RV and mobile-home parks you maintain only the underground infrastructure, not the units. Good economy means traveling short-term guests; bad economy means full-time residents, so the asset is hedged both directions.

“With a mobile home or an RV park, You don't maintain the units, you just maintain the infrastructure under the ground. It's a hedge against the economy. When the economy's good, the millennials and the boomers are traveling. You got short-term stays. When the economy, economy tanks, you got people living in your RV parks full-time. So you hedge it both ways.”

Extend the season: $8M RV park to $1.2M/yr net via simple value-adds

Chris bought a Glacier-area RV park for $8M doing $700k/yr (a 9 cap). Value-add was mundane: open May 1-Oct 31 instead of May 15-Oct 15, raise under-market rents, add pad sites, and expand onto adjacent land. It now nets about $1.2M a year.

“So the rents were under market. We raised rents, we added more pad sites, we expanded the season, and now it's doing like $1.2 million a year of net profit.”

Steal thisBuy a sleepy operator and unlock value with obvious moves: longer season, market rents, and more units.

Roll up small parks to compress the cap rate and sell to PE

Chris explains the roll-up arbitrage: package 28+ parks into a $260M portfolio so the blended cap rate compresses, then sell the whole thing to private equity at a 6 cap, far below the 7.5-9 caps the individual parks were bought at.

“Well, more because we're packaging it with 28 other parks. So we have $150 million worth of parks under management and then we have a portfolio worth $111 million under contract right now. So by the end of the year, we'll have $260 million worth of parks under management. That way our cap rate comes way down and we can sell the whole thing for a 6 cap. To private equity.”

Steal thisAggregate small assets into a large portfolio so the blended cap rate compresses and you can exit to PE at a premium multiple.

Free-to-paid AI implementation agency for small businesses

Asked what he'd build from scratch, Chris would ride the AI tidal wave using his small-business expertise: implement AI for free to earn trust and prove himself an expert, then start charging via a simple AI automation/implementation agency for SMBs.

“And so the tidal wave is AI and I would want to implement AI in small businesses for free to get my foot in the door, earn their trust, show myself as an expert, and then start charging. And I would just have a simple AI automation slash implementation agency for small to medium-sized businesses.”

Steal thisImplement AI for SMBs free first to earn trust, then convert to paid automation/implementation retainers.

Start with the marketing channel, then build the idea around it

Chris's product process: start with a marketing channel and a domain name, then design the product around it. He validates that people want it before building, rather than building and hoping people show up.

“It's more that I start with a marketing channel. Right, in mind. And then I build an idea around that. And oftentimes the name and the brand goes hand in hand with the marketing channel, right? I don't like building ideas and see if people will want it. You know, I want to see if they will want it and then build the idea.”

Steal thisPick your distribution channel first and design the product and brand to fit it.

Sell golf courses a floating hole-in-one green, take 30% of revenue

Rather than guess where golfers are, install a floating green challenge at an existing course as a done-for-you service. The course earns extra revenue with zero work; you keep 30% of all revenue as the operator.

“So you could, yeah, you could do this as a service and say, we'll install this. You're gonna have more net income. Without doing any work, we're going to take 30% of all your revenue as a fee.”

Steal thisPiggyback on a captive audience that already has the foot traffic instead of building demand from scratch; sell it as a revenue-share install.

One organic Facebook Marketplace listing did $9.8M in 3 months

In 2021, Kerner pre-sold Bitcoin miners by listing them on Facebook Marketplace under the $200 hosting price (not the $10K miner price) to avoid sticker shock. With VAs refreshing posts across accounts and zero paid ads, that listing did $9.8M profitably in three months.

“I put in the price of the hosting, $200. And then when you click into it in the description, it's like, it's actually $200 for hosting. Here's the cost of the miners. I'm not exaggerating. That one ad, and I had it going on multiple accounts, we would refresh it, but no paid, like no paid, did $9.8 million all on Facebook Marketplace in 3 months profitably.”

The guy netting $180K/yr selling garage shelving on Facebook Marketplace

Kerner interviewed Alex, who builds garage shelving on wheels out of Costco totes and 2x4s, sells it only through organic Facebook Marketplace posts, and nets $180K a year. He didn't even own a truck for the first 18 months.

“he has a six-figure business just building not shelving, but garage shelving on wheels with Costco totes. Like, that's it. Only with organic Facebook Marketplace posts, and he net profits $180,000 a year. That's the whole business, right? Garage shelving on Facebook Marketplace.”

Transplant a tourist-trap novelty into another tourist market

A 300-sq-ft frozen-banana shop on Balboa Island does an estimated $7M/year. Kerner's idea: take a proven novelty tourist-trap item (frozen bananas, indoor sledding, old-timey photos) and cheaply test it in a different tourist market that lacks it.

“This one little shop that's like 300 square feet is doing like $7 million a year in frozen bananas. Like, and what's the margin on an $8 banana with chocolate and peanuts? And so I just thought, like, why isn't this— like, why isn't this a thing?”

Steal thisFind a single-product novelty crushing it in one tourist trap and clone it cheaply into another tourist market that has the same demographic.

Buc-ee's does ~$3B revenue across just 51 gas stations

Kerner describes Buc-ee's as a redneck Disney gas station: ~51 locations each doing $60-$80M a year, putting it around $3B in revenue total. They win by placing huge branded stops on the way to vacation destinations.

“They're about half the size of Costco. There's 51 locations and they do like $60 to $80 million in revenue per year each.”

First Sale Doctrine: legally resell any brand if you don't imitate it

Kerner researched the First Sale Doctrine, which lets anyone resell a product as long as they don't pretend to be or imitate the brand. He contrasts Pirate Joe's (copied Trader Joe's look and got sued out of existence) with his approach of clearly labeling himself a third-party reseller.

“So I also did my research and it's called First Sale Doctrine. Which means anyone can sell, resell whatever they want. They just can't pretend or imitate that brand, right? Like the— there's a guy that imitated Trader Joe's to do what I did, but he called himself Pirate Joe's. The logo was similar, the store layout was similar, and he got sued out of existence.”

Beaver Snacks: a permissionless reseller that Buc-ee's ended up blessing

Kerner built a Shopify store reselling Buc-ee's merch and snacks without permission, made it a viral PR stunt, and got written up. When Buc-ee's counsel called, instead of suing they asked him to rename and add disclaimers, then gave their blessing and linked to him in their FAQ.

“So I get on the phone with him and he's like, listen, we actually don't mind what you're doing. I don't like the name Beaver Snacks. We're a beaver. It's kind of confusing. I don't like that your colors are yellow. We're kind of yellow. Change the name. Put a disclaimer in your logo that persists throughout the whole website. Put a disclaimer on every product page. And you have our blessing.”

Reselling Buc-ee's merch: $300K-$500K/month, marked up 100%

Kerner's Beaver Snacks resale business does $300K-$500K a month profitably with very little paid ad spend. He buys the merch at full retail and marks it up 100% to net a 15-20% e-commerce margin.

“We're doing between $300,000 and $500,000 a month profitably with very, very little paid out spend.”

Pet cremation: 90% margins, more dogs than children, sleepy operators

Kerner's pet cremation thesis: cremation has 90%+ net margins, the COVID puppy boom means there are more dogs than children, and most operators are 60+ and don't run ads. The Google Keyword Tool showed high search volume, low competition, high ticket.

“And he learned about the industry and how pet cremation has like 90+ percent net margins. It's a very old-school business. And so there's a— but, you know, we've had this puppy boom during COVID So all these puppies are 5 years old now. There's more dogs than children. That's, that's like the whole thesis. There's more dogs than children.”

Steal thisHunt for old-school, high-margin local industries run by near-retirement operators who don't market, then add basic SEO and sales.

Validate a B2B niche by cold-calling every operator for $200

To test a B2B stump-grinding idea, Kerner scraped all ~1,000 Houston tree-trimming firms and had a VA call each one. Only 22% answered, but nearly half of those said they'd gladly outsource stump grinding, and confirmed pricing, validating the niche for about $200.

“So only 22% of people answered the phone. That's it. And of the ones that did, almost half of them said, if I could outsource this, I would gladly. And then we, then we even got further down the script and said, would you pay $7 per inch or whatever of diameter? Yes.”

Steal thisScrape every operator in a target market, have a VA or AI voice agent call them with a tight script, and measure demand before building anything.

If a competitor's choice looks stupid, it's probably load-bearing

Kerner's 3PL set out to innovate with simple flat pricing, mocking rivals who charged for storage and pick-and-pack. Two years later they looked just like everyone else, because each 'stupid' practice existed for a reason. The signal: copy how successful competitors operate, not just their features.

“So we set out to like innovate the industry. Simple, flat pricing. And like at the end of that 2-year experience, like we looked like all the other 3PLs because we're like, okay, oh, oh, they charge for storage because some companies go out of business. And then they're left with this big bill and they don't— oh, that's why. Like, so that's another signal is if you see other competitors in your industry and your first thought is like, they're so stupid, why are they doing it this way? Probably for a reason. Like, you just haven't learned that reason yet.”

Steal thisWhen a competitor's practice looks dumb, assume it's load-bearing and copy it first; only innovate once you understand why it exists.