Shane Parrish

If everyone agrees it's a great investment, the price is already baked in

Riffing on a Shane Parrish / Sahil Bloom line, Shaan argues outsized returns require betting on something the crowd doesn't yet agree with. Consensus 'great' investments are at best solid; the upside is already priced in.

“you have to remember that if you're going to invest, if everybody agrees it's a great investment, then the price is baked in, right? So ultimately, if you want to have any kind of outsized return, you have to be betting on something that not everybody is agreeing with you is a, is a good investment..”

Steal thisOnly expect outsized returns from bets the crowd doesn't yet agree with; consensus picks are already priced in.