← All people
Guest

Suleman Ali

Tech entrepreneur and angel investor; founder of TinyCo (acquired by Jam City) and general partner of Ali Capital.

3× guest · 0 transcript mentions
56
receipts
9
numbers
6
episodes
3
guest
By type
56
  • Story16 · 29%
  • Framework10 · 18%
  • Number9 · 16%
  • Idea7 · 13%
  • Take7 · 13%
  • Tactic3 · 5%
  • Billy2 · 4%
  • Prediction2 · 4%
By speaker
56
  • Guest50 · 89%
  • Shaan5 · 9%
  • Both1 · 2%
By topic
106
  • Investing22 · 21%
  • SaaS / Software17 · 16%
  • Marketing / Growth12 · 11%
  • Side Hustles12 · 11%
  • Personal Finance11 · 10%
  • Acquisitions / M&A11 · 10%
  • Hiring / Team8 · 8%
  • Other13 · 12%

Guest appearances

3 episodes
#430SVB Collapse Explained, D2C Brands That May Fail, And Suli's Next VentureMar 14, 2023Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: From Failure to a $100m+ SuccessMay 03, 2021#146#146 with Suleman "Suli" Ali - Voluntarily Selling Our Data, Creating The New Religion and A Fund Making Millions Shorting Pharma CompaniesJan 20, 2021

Key numbers

9 figures

In the moments

56 linked receipts
Story

Founder wired $70M out of SVB into his personal account mid-bank-run

During the SVB bank run, Suleman was at an SV Angel founder event where one founder told him he wired $70M out of his SVB business account into his personal Morgan Stanley account that morning, because opening a new business-name account would have taken 24-48 hours he didn't have.

One guy told me that he wired $70 million out of his SVB accounts that morning into his personal Morgan Stanley account because he didn't want to wait for a bank account in the business name to open because that would take 24, 48 hours, which literally in normal circumstances that would be maybe not illegal, but hugely frowned upon. Definitely ill-advised.
EP 430 · 1:58 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:58
mfmindex.com№ 0430-118
Number

25% of SVB's $180B in deposits was wired out in a single day

SVB held roughly $180 billion in deposits, and customers tried to wire out about 25 cents on every dollar in one day.

$180000M
SVB total deposits · USD
Yeah, something like $180 billion in deposits. So about 25%, 25 cents on every dollar was tried to be wired out in one day.
EP 430 · 6:32 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 6:32
mfmindex.com№ 0430-392
Number

SVB lost $42B in one day vs $17B over 10 days for the prior record bank failure

Suleman contrasts the speed of the SVB run with the previous largest US bank failure: Washington Mutual lost $17B in withdrawals over 10 days in 2008, while SVB saw $42B attempted withdrawn in a single day in 2023.

$42000M
Attempted single-day withdrawals during SVB bank run · USD/day
the biggest bank failure in American history is Washington Mutual in 2008. And in 2008, $17 billion was removed from Washington— withdrawn from Washington Mutual in 10 days.. And in Silicon Valley Bank, it was $42 billion in one day on Thursday. So just the speed with which business happens is like, you know, so much faster now.
EP 430 · 15:17 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 15:17
mfmindex.com№ 0430-917
Framework

Peter Thiel: the best startups have one revenue source, not eight

Per Suleman, Marc Andreessen often cited Peter Thiel's rule that great startups have a single clear revenue stream early on (e.g. Facebook with ads), not eight stacked sources like ads plus business plus customer revenue you see in pitch decks.

Peter Thiel says the best startups have one source of revenue, uh, not 8 sources of revenue. I'm sure you've seen this in startup pitch decks where they're like, we're going to generate revenue from ads, plus we're going to generate revenue from businesses, plus we're going to generate revenue from these customers. Um, so having like 8 different revenue streams is much worse than we're Facebook, we're going to generate revenue from ads, one single clear revenue source in the beginning.

Steal thisPick one clear revenue source for your startup at launch instead of stacking many.

EP 430 · 17:26 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 17:26
mfmindex.com№ 0430-1046
Number

Allbirds market cap fell 95%, from $4B at IPO to $200M

Allbirds, which raised $200-300M and did $300M in revenue, is down 95% from its November 2021 IPO valuation of $4 billion to a $200 million market cap.

$200M
Allbirds market cap (down from $4B at IPO) · USD
It's $200 million right now. Yep. Yeah. Down 95% from their IPO in November of 2021, from $4 billion to $200 million.
EP 430 · 34:29 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 34:29
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2069
Story

Allbirds' 58-store retail bet failed because nobody knew the brand

Suleman breaks down Allbirds' unraveling: shrinking revenue, high costs, and a 58-store retail expansion that flopped because not enough people knew the brand to walk in and buy. They're now halting store and international growth and moving manufacturing from New Zealand to Vietnam to cut costs.

They've opened up a ton of stores, like 58 stores in the US and abroad. And I think that store strategy isn't working because not enough people know what Allbirds are and walk into the stores and want some. Um, so they've, they decided they're going to stop opening stores. They're only going to open 3 more stores this year.
EP 430 · 34:54 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 34:54
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2094
Framework

The Native D2C playbook: profitable on first purchase, scale on repeats

Suleman lays out the bootstrapped D2C playbook his brother used with Native deodorant: raise little capital, acquire customers so you break even or profit on the first purchase, then scale through high-margin repeat purchases you reinvest or take as distributions.

The native playbook of raise little capital, um, focus on profitability, acquire customers,, so that you're breakeven on the first purchase or profitable on the first purchase and, scale through repeat purchases that are generating a ton of profit using that, to either reinvest in the business to launch new products or just take distributions.

Steal thisEngineer your D2C unit economics so the first purchase breaks even, then live off repeat-purchase profit instead of VC.

EP 430 · 37:51 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 37:51
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2271
Number

Grove Collaborative stock down 96%, worth less than the cash it raised

Grove Collaborative, a 10-year-old SF home-products subscription company that went public via SPAC, is down 96% to a $70M market cap, trading below its raised cash with sub-$1 shares, and only hit its first-ever profitable quarter by accepting declining revenue.

$70M
Grove Collaborative market cap (down 96%) · USD
Grove Collaborative stock is down 96% and has a market cap of $70 million. It's worth, uh, you know, way less than the cash that they've raised. That's crazy. Yeah. And the stock is sub $1.
EP 430 · 40:43 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 40:43
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2443
Story

Suleman bought $1M of Squarespace stock and watched it drop to $250K

Suleman recounts buying $1 million of Squarespace stock, which fell to about $250,000 (a $750K paper loss) before turning around. He thinks the business is deeply undervalued but isn't sure it's a great stock.

Uh, yeah, I bought $1 million of Squarespace stock. I still own it. I don't know if I made any money on it. I, at some point it turned into like $250,000 because Squarespace stock went down. So I'd lost $750,000, but I think it has since turned around.
EP 430 · 42:33 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 42:33
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2553
Idea

Buy 51% of Wish ($700M cash, $286M cap), shut it down, distribute the cash

The most interesting reply to Suleman's 'how to double $50M' tweet: buy enough of Wish (which has $700M in cash but only a $286M market cap, trading below cash) to force management to distribute the cash and wind the company down for a profit.

try to go buy all of Wish or, you know, 51% of Wish. Um, Wish has $700 million in cash and its market cap is $286 million. So it's trading at less than cash. Um, so, you know, buy enough stock that you can, uh, convince management to distribute the stock, distribute the cash and shut the company down.

Steal thisScreen for public companies trading below net cash, then buy in and pressure management to return the cash.

EP 430 · 43:40 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 43:40
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2620
Take

Chamath made $1B+ across his SPACs without taking real risk

Suleman explains the SPAC sponsor economics: Chamath took companies like Opendoor and SoFi public via SPAC and, as sponsor, got a percentage of each company without putting real capital at risk, making over a billion dollars across an estimated 5-10 SPACs while retail investors lost money.

so Chamath has made out like a bandit in— I think he's done 5 to 10 SPACs. He's made money in each one of those SPACs. And I think every other— how much? Um, more than a billion dollars across all of those, for sure.
EP 430 · 46:30 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 46:30
mfmindex.com№ 0430-2790
Take

$2M at 25 is worth more than $20M at 45

Suleman's contrarian take on money and timing: a smaller amount of money early in life is more valuable than far more later, because youth lets you do things money can't buy back at 45.

$2 million when you're 25 is more valuable than $20 million when you're 45. Because you can basically do awesome stuff at 25 that you're not gonna be able to do at 45.
EP 430 · 55:02 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 55:02
mfmindex.com№ 0430-3302
Framework

Good Quest vs bad quest: don't waste brilliance on a slightly better mousetrap

Suleman summarizes a Founders Fund (Trae Stephens) essay: too many brilliant people chase 'bad quests' that make money fast via incremental improvements, when they should be on 'good quests' that solve the era's hardest, most noble problems.

you're either focused on something that is noble and honorable and makes the world a better place, or in his language, you're focused on, um, short-term things that are going to make you rich quickly, uh, even if they're incremental improvements, um, so a slightly better mousetrap. And he basically is like, there is no, uh, we're wasting society and, um, people are wasting their energy. Brilliant people are wasting their brilliance on dumb problems, and we should be trying to solve the greatest problems that we have in our lifetimes.

Steal thisAudit whether your work is a good quest (solving a hard, noble problem) or just a better mousetrap, and aim higher.

EP 430 · 55:46 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 55:46
mfmindex.com№ 0430-3346
Framework

Evaluate ideas with two questions: would it be big if it worked, and can I get customers?

Suleman's idea-evaluation framework: instead of starting with reasons it will fail, start by asking 'if this works, what does the world look like and is it a big deal?' then 'can I get customers?' If both are yes, that's all you need to start; the how (science, manufacturing) can be figured out later.

so I definitely start with the, uh, if this works, uh, what does the world look like? And, uh, can this be a big deal if it actually works?

Steal thisVet a new idea by asking only two things first: would it be huge if it worked, and can you get customers.

EP 430 · 1:08:17 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:08:17
mfmindex.com№ 0430-4097
Take

First-time founders obsess over product, second-time founders obsess over distribution

Suleman cites the Justin Kan line that first-time founders fixate on product while second-time founders fixate on distribution, plus the newer mindset of securing distribution first and building product after.

there's this Justin Kan quote: first-time founders are obsessed with product, second-time founders are obsessed with distribution. Now I think there's this concept of Um, I just focus on distribution. The product comes after I have distribution.
EP 430 · 1:15:43 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:15:43
mfmindex.com№ 0430-4543
Idea

Skin a proven game with licensed IP (Family Guy Candy Crush)

Shaan's friend Sully took a proven, addictive game (Candy Crush) and reskinned it with Family Guy branding, then got Family Guy to promote it. The licensor earned millions in revenue from the game's success; he later did the same with Harry Potter.

So he took a proven game, Candy Crush, that's like super addictive, amazing at monetizing, And he just skinned it with the Family Guy branding and got Family Guy to help promote it. And Family Guy got millions of dollars in revenue from the success of this game. And then eventually the same thing with Harry Potter.

Steal thisTake a proven, addictive game mechanic and reskin it with a hungry IP brand that will co-promote it.

EP 168 · 15:37 · SHAAN
Read at 15:37
mfmindex.com№ 0168-937
Tactic

The 'one whiteboard question' until you crack it

When the company was screwed unless they landed Family Guy, Sully put all chips on one strategy: every morning the whiteboard asked 'How do we go get the Family Guy rights?' They'd try an idea that day, fail, and come back the next day until it worked.

So he just put all his chips into this one strategy and was like, okay, every morning when we come into the office, we just have a whiteboard. The whiteboard says, how do we go get the Family Guy rights? It's like, what can we do? And they would just come up with some ideas and then they would try it that day and then they would fail and they would come back again the next day and the next day.

Steal thisWrite the single make-or-break question on a whiteboard and attack it every single day until it cracks.

EP 168 · 17:59 · SHAAN
Read at 17:59
mfmindex.com№ 0168-1079
Tactic

The 'one whiteboard question' until you crack it

When the company was screwed unless they landed Family Guy, Sully put all chips on one strategy: every morning the whiteboard asked 'How do we go get the Family Guy rights?' They'd try an idea that day, fail, and come back the next day until it worked.

So he just put all his chips into this one strategy and was like, okay, every morning when we come into the office, we just have a whiteboard. The whiteboard says, how do we go get the Family Guy rights? It's like, what can we do? And they would just come up with some ideas and then they would try it that day and then they would fail and they would come back again the next day and the next day.

Steal thisWrite the single make-or-break question on a whiteboard and attack it every single day until it cracks.

EP 168 · 17:59 · SHAAN
Read at 17:59
mfmindex.com№ 0168-1079
Billy

Suli sold a Facebook-apps company and poured it all into Facebook stock

Shaan marvels at Suli, who sold a forgettable Facebook-apps company for $1-3M, then recognized the platform underneath was not silly and aggressively bought pre-IPO Facebook stock plus Florida real estate while immediately starting his next business.

He aggressively started buying up Facebook stock back then before it was public. And then he did. And then he went to, you know, in Florida and he bought a bunch of real estate. And I just thought, wow, this guy's really like conducting himself.
EP 167 · 20:22 · SHAAN
Read at 20:22
mfmindex.com№ 0167-1222
Tactic

Say 'amazing' and ask another question

Shaan describes Suli's conversational hack: when someone says something crazy or counter to how you think, don't correct them, just say 'amazing' and ask a follow-up question. You learn far more than by asserting what you already know.

And instead, this is the way. You're just like, you just laugh and you're like, amazing. Tell me, why do you do that? Yeah. You just say the word like amazing. And then you just like ask them a follow-up question. And I looked at that and I was like, wow, that's actually the best way to do this. 'Cause nobody wants to be told that they're wrong.

Steal thisWhen someone says something wild, reply 'amazing, why do you do that?' instead of countering.

EP 146 · 18:45 · SHAAN
Read at 18:45
mfmindex.com№ 0146-1125
Idea

Crowdsourced org charts as a biz-dev dataset

Shaan and Suli want public org charts showing who's who and who reports to whom at big companies. Abreu flags The Org, a startup that raised $10M to crowdsource exactly this, which Shaan thinks is a valuable, chargeable dataset.

there's a startup came out that raised $10 million to do exactly this called The Org. .com and, um, basically they're crowdsourcing it. So you go, like, I created the one for Twitch.

Steal thisCrowdsource company org charts and charge for access to contacts and emails.

EP 146 · 23:21 · BOTH
Read at 23:21
mfmindex.com№ 0146-1401
Framework

Stripe for Vice: build what the incumbent's terms forbid

Suli pitches building a payments processor for the businesses Stripe's terms of service forbid (marijuana, MLM, OnlyFans). The beauty: Stripe will never compete because it's written into their TOS, so you're safe from the incumbent.

And what I love about Stripe for Vice is Stripe, which is an incredibly great business, will never compete with you because it's in their terms of service that like, we will never do these things.

Steal thisFind an incumbent's TOS exclusions and build the business they've promised never to enter.

EP 146 · 54:52 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 54:52
mfmindex.com№ 0146-3292
Idea

Decouple pharma R&D from the consumer brand

Suli predicts a next generation of consumer health brands (like Hims and Curology, but for diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure) that own the brand and customer experience while someone else does the R&D.

What if you could kind of decouple those things? So somebody else is doing the research and development, but you're building the consumer brand and consumer experience to go do that thing.

Steal thisBuild a consumer brand on top of off-the-shelf medical R&D for serious chronic conditions.

EP 146 · 59:01 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 59:01
mfmindex.com№ 0146-3541
Idea

Title insurance: the insurance that barely pays out

Suli flags title insurance as an easy-to-execute opportunity: unlike most insurance where ~85% of premiums get paid back out, title insurance pays out only single digits, yet every US real estate transaction pays thousands for it.

Title insurance, that's not the case. It's like single digits or teens of the premium actually gets paid back out for title insurance. And every transaction, every real estate transaction in the United States pays for it and it costs thousands and thousands of dollars.

Steal thisWhite-label the underwriting, charge 50% less, and run Google/Facebook ads for title insurance.

EP 146 · 1:03:45 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:03:45
mfmindex.com№ 0146-3825
Idea

Clone a hot SaaS as a human-powered service for under $20K

Suli's million-dollar play: find a sexy, well-funded SaaS like Main Street (R&D tax credits), buy its Google ad, market a cheaper version with a beautiful website, and do the work with humans in the backend, reaching hundreds of thousands in ARR within a year.

Like I'd go and buy the Main Street Google ad. Whenever somebody searches for Main Street, I would go put up my own service and market it as cheaper than Main Street in some way, have human beings that go do all of the work in the backend and have a beautiful looking website. And I think all of that will cost less than 10 or 20K, and in a year you'll have hundreds of thousands of dollars of ARR

Steal thisBuy a funded SaaS competitor's brand keyword, undercut on price, and deliver with human labor first.

EP 146 · 1:06:58 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:06:58
mfmindex.com№ 0146-4018
Idea

Clone a hot SaaS as a human-powered service for under $20K

Suli's million-dollar play: find a sexy, well-funded SaaS like Main Street (R&D tax credits), buy its Google ad, market a cheaper version with a beautiful website, and do the work with humans in the backend, reaching hundreds of thousands in ARR within a year.

Like I'd go and buy the Main Street Google ad. Whenever somebody searches for Main Street, I would go put up my own service and market it as cheaper than Main Street in some way, have human beings that go do all of the work in the backend and have a beautiful looking website. And I think all of that will cost less than 10 or 20K, and in a year you'll have hundreds of thousands of dollars of ARR

Steal thisBuy a funded SaaS competitor's brand keyword, undercut on price, and deliver with human labor first.

EP 146 · 1:06:58 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:06:58
mfmindex.com№ 0146-4018
Take

Stick at entrepreneurship for a decade and you'll get rich

Suli argues entrepreneurship is a game where if you stay focused for a decade you will succeed; all his decade-long entrepreneur friends are now rich despite early failures. Shaan echoes Naval: efforts fail, but entrepreneurs rarely fail in the end.

So I really believe that entrepreneurship is one of those things where if you stick at it for a decade, you will succeed. I don't know if you're going to be rich in year 9 or 7 or 2 or 1, But by year 10, I believe that you're gonna be rich if you actually stick with it
EP 146 · 1:16:21 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:16:21
mfmindex.com№ 0146-4581
Take

Most people wildly overestimate the risk of quitting their job

Sulaiman Ali argues that with sub-4% unemployment for skilled workers, quitting to start a company is low-risk because you can return to a job — often at a higher level, since companies value entrepreneurial experience.

And I really think a lot— most people overestimate the risk that they're taking when they leave their job. The unemployment rate in the United States is sub-4% for people who are competent and skilled. Build in their line of work, it's easy for them to go back to their job. I think if I quit Microsoft, started a company and failed for a year or 2 or 3, I could go back to Microsoft and actually get a higher position than what I would have if I had stayed

Steal thisReframe quitting as low-risk: worst case you return to your field, often at a higher level for having tried.

EP 1 · 13:08 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 13:08
mfmindex.com№ 0001-788
Story

A silly Facebook 'Superlatives' app hit 1 million users in a month

Ali and a Georgia Tech friend built a Facebook app where you assign joke superlatives to friends. They hoped for 100 users; within a month a million people used it and their servers melted.

So we made a bunch of really funny superlatives, like most likely to wear a bunny costume for no apparent reason, most likely to get conned by old ladies in Las Vegas, things that we just thought were kind of offbeat and funny that you would want to give to a friend. And, uh, that friend would go to the app and give one back to you.— So we launched on the Facebook platform and within a month, 1 million people had used it and our servers were melting.
EP 1 · 15:27 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 15:27
mfmindex.com№ 0001-927
Billy

Naval cold-calls a stranger and offers to wire $200K over lunch

Naval Ravikant called Ali out of the blue, cut through his hesitation by asking what it would take to get him on a plane tomorrow, and at lunch offered to wire $200K on the spot.

And he cuts through all the bullshit in my head and says, what's it going to take to get you on a plane tomorrow to come meet me here in San Francisco? And I say, oh, okay, I can do that. Right. And so I buy a one-way ticket to San Francisco and come to come out here and meet with him.
EP 1 · 18:54 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 18:54
mfmindex.com№ 0001-1134
Story

Shervin Pishevar buys the company with a $2M number on a napkin

At a Facebook-apps conference, Shervin Pishevar wrote an acquisition number on a napkin and slid it over. Ali saw $2 million for a 9-month-old company and said yes instantly.

So he writes a number on a napkin, turns it over, slides it to us. We look at it and we immediately say, okay, let's do this deal. Uh, so it was a $2 million number on the napkin and we'd started the company sort of 9 months ago.
EP 1 · 28:49 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 28:49
mfmindex.com№ 0001-1729
Number

$76K Microsoft salary to a $2M napkin offer in 9 months

Ali was making $76,000/year at Microsoft. Nine months after quitting, he was offered $2 million for his Facebook app company.

$76K
Microsoft annual salary · USD/year
So at the time when I was at Microsoft, I was making $76,000 a year. —so he offered us $2 million for 9 months' worth of work.
EP 1 · 29:31 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 29:31
mfmindex.com№ 0001-1771
Story

TinyCo got its name from a $700 domain

Ali and Ian Spivey wanted a cheap, fun domain. Every good name was expensive, but TinyCo was available for $700 — suggested by engineer Bo Shi — so that became the company name.

We were looking for domain names that were really cheap and fun. And TinyCo we bought for $700. All the other domain names and ideas that we had were very expensive. So that's how we arrived at the name TinyCo.
EP 1 · 38:00 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 38:00
mfmindex.com№ 0001-2280
Framework

Keith Rabois: list every way your startup could fail before writing code

Ali relays Keith Rabois's heuristic: before building, write a prioritized list of all the reasons your company could fail, then try to disprove each one — up front, not after you've launched.

One thing I heard Keith Rabois say once is when you start a company, you should think about all of the reasons that it's not going to work and all of the reasons that it's going to fail. And you should start with that list, make a prioritized list, and try to prove that these aren't things that are going to make your company fail.

Steal thisBefore writing a line of code, write a prioritized list of why the company could fail and try to disprove each.

EP 1 · 47:23 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 47:23
mfmindex.com№ 0001-2843
Story

He left the office assuming the company was dead, then woke up to $400K in a day

When the Family Guy game got a weak App Store feature, Ali concluded the company was over, went home and slept. The next morning the stats showed $400,000 in revenue the prior day — it was working.

I immediately go to look at our stats and I'm like, oh. We just generated $400,000 in revenue yesterday. So this is working. Holy fuck, this is actually working. We're winning. I run to the office and like rally the team and say, wow, this is working. We did it, guys.
EP 1 · 1:06:53 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 1:06:53
mfmindex.com№ 0001-4013
Number

TinyCo sold at ~$85M revenue and $15M EBITDA; Family Guy alone did $150-200M

At sale, TinyCo was doing about $85M in revenue, $15M EBITDA, with ~150 people. The Family Guy game alone went on to generate more than $150M, maybe $200M, in revenue.

$85M
Revenue at sale · USD/year
The Family Guy game goes on to do more than $150, maybe $200 million in revenue at this point. We get an offer to buy the business. We hire an investment banker, this guy named Dick Filippini, who helps us get a couple more offers. We sell the business. The year that we sell, we do— we're doing about $85 million in revenue, $15 million in EBITDA, about 150 people at the time.
EP 1 · 1:07:55 · SULAIMAN ALI
Read at 1:07:55
mfmindex.com№ 0001-4075
Story

Microsoft job, and dad says quit and start a company

On his first day at Microsoft in 2004, Suleiman Ali called his dad from his new office phone. Instead of congratulating him, his dad told him to quit immediately and start his own company because 'that's where the action is at.'

And he says, that's all great. You know, cool. You got an office and this is all great that you're excited about what you're doing, but really you should quit your job immediately and start your own company. That's really where the action is at.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 9:48 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 9:48
mfmindex.com№ 0000-588
Framework

People overestimate the risk of quitting their job

Ali argues most people overestimate the risk of leaving a job to start a company. With sub-4% unemployment, a competent person can return easily, and the entrepreneurial experience often earns them a higher position than if they'd stayed.

And I really think a lot— most people overestimate the risk that they're taking when they leave their job. The unemployment rate in the United States is sub-4%. For people who are competent and skilled in their line of work, it's easy for them to go back to their job. I think if I quit Microsoft, started a company and failed for a year or two or three, I could go back to Microsoft and actually get a higher position than what I would have if I had stayed

Steal thisReframe quitting as low-risk: if you fail, your old industry will take you back, often at a higher level for having tried.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 18:37 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 18:37
mfmindex.com№ 0000-1117
Story

A 2-week Facebook app hit 1 million users and melted the servers

Ali and a friend built a Facebook app called Superlatives in two weeks, hoping 100 friends would use it. Within a month a million people had used it and their database was melting because they knew nothing about architecture.

So we launched on the Facebook platform, and within a month, a million people had used it, and our servers were melting. We didn't know anything about database architecture, so our database was melting. The app was going down all the time.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 20:56 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 20:56
mfmindex.com№ 0000-1256
Framework

Track frequency, not lifetime users — optimize the right metric

Ali's early apps optimized for total people who ever used them, not daily/monthly actives. The lesson: build something people use frequently over a long period, not something they touch once and send to ten friends.

We were optimizing for something that people would touch, get 10 of their friends to use, but never come back to.

Steal thisPick your north-star metric early — optimize for frequent, repeat usage (DAU/MAU), not cumulative installs.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 31:01 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 31:01
mfmindex.com№ 0000-1861
Story

A $2M number on a napkin, 9 months in, and they said yes instantly

At a conference, investor Shervin Pishevar wrote a number on a napkin and slid it over. It was $2 million for a company they'd started 9 months earlier — they accepted immediately.

So he writes a number on a napkin, turns it over, slides it to us. We look at it and we immediately say, okay, let's do this deal. So it was a $2 million number on the napkin and we'd started the company sort of 9 months ago.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 34:18 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 34:18
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2058
Framework

The roll-up: combine the top players to manufacture value

Shervin's playbook was a roll-up: raise a big check ($15M from a VC), buy the top 5 players in a space, and combine them so the $10M spent creates $50M-$100M of combined value.

So you get somebody to back you and give you a big check. In this case, he'd gotten a venture capitalist to give him $15 million. He's going to use that $15 million to buy up the top 5 players in the space, combine them all together with a goal of, you know, that costs $10 million but creates $50 million or $100 million of value.

Steal thisRoll up the top players in a fragmented space so the combined entity is worth far more than the sum of the acquisitions.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 35:57 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 35:57
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2157
Number

Comcast bought DailyCandy newsletter for $400M

Ali cites DailyCandy, a newsletter for women, as inspiration for chasing the newsletter business — Comcast acquired it for $400 million.

$400M
Acquisition price · USD
There's a company called Daily Candy, which was a newsletter for women that Comcast bought for $400 million.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 39:42 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 39:42
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2382
Number

TinyCo's first mobile game made $500K-$600K in month one

TinyCo's first game, Tap Resort, was pushed into the top 5 free apps via a Tapjoy marketing deal, generating $500,000-$600,000 of revenue in its first month from hundreds of thousands of downloads.

$600K
First-month revenue · USD/month
So we get hundreds of thousands of downloads immediately, and those downloads are turning into revenue. So in the first month of launch, we generate $500,000-$600,000 of revenue.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 44:47 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 44:47
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2687
Take

Never lie to yourself about reality

Ali's core lesson: founders constantly lie to themselves about market reality because they want to please investors and keep employees excited. The strength of a team is admitting the reality you live in has changed and acting immediately.

I think that one of the things you need to do as an entrepreneur is never lie to yourself about reality. It's very easy for an entrepreneur to lie to themselves about reality, especially when they've got investors that they always want to say the nice thing to or the right thing to, especially when you've got employees and you always want to be— your employees to be excited about your business and where you're going.

Steal thisWhen the market shifts, name the new reality out loud and change course immediately — don't let optimism for investors and staff blind you.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 45:49 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 45:49
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2749
Take

Never lie to yourself about reality

Ali's core lesson: founders constantly lie to themselves about market reality because they want to please investors and keep employees excited. The strength of a team is admitting the reality you live in has changed and acting immediately.

I think that one of the things you need to do as an entrepreneur is never lie to yourself about reality. It's very easy for an entrepreneur to lie to themselves about reality, especially when they've got investors that they always want to say the nice thing to or the right thing to, especially when you've got employees and you always want to be— your employees to be excited about your business and where you're going.

Steal thisWhen the market shifts, name the new reality out loud and change course immediately — don't let optimism for investors and staff blind you.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 45:49 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 45:49
mfmindex.com№ 0000-2749
Framework

List every way you'll fail before writing a line of code

A Keith Rabois heuristic Ali adopted: before starting, write a prioritized list of every reason your company could fail and try to disprove each one up front — not after you've built and launched the product.

One thing I heard Keith Rabois say once is when you start a company, you should think about all of the reasons that it's not going to work and all of the reasons that it's going to fail. And you should start with that list, make a prioritized list, and try to prove that these aren't things that are going to make your company fail. And you want to do that as the first thing.

Steal thisWrite a pre-mortem memo listing every reason your idea could fail, then try to disprove each one before you build anything.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 52:51 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 52:51
mfmindex.com№ 0000-3171
Story

How TinyCo won the Family Guy license by asking 'what more can we do?' daily

Competing against EA and Zynga for the Family Guy game license, Ali asked his BD lead every single day what more they could do. They wrote a memo on why EA was wrong, and pulled board member Marc Andreessen and Hollywood's Tom Rothman to vouch for them — winning the deal.

So every day I would go to Andrew and say, what more can we do to get the deal done today? And he was like, there's no more. I have nothing. There's nothing we could come up with. And I was like, no, we need to come up with something more.

Steal thisWhen chasing a make-or-break deal, ask 'what more can we do today?' relentlessly until the other side is afraid to say no.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 56:28 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 56:28
mfmindex.com№ 0000-3388
Story

Signed a $10M license with $2M in the bank, then laid off 70 people

TinyCo signed a Family Guy license owing Fox $10M within 30 days while holding only $2M. They got a ~$10M SVB loan to pay Fox, then laid off 70-80 of their ~160 employees one at a time in a single brutal day.

When we sign the deal with Fox, we sign a deal that says that we're going to pay them $10 million for the license and that we're going to pay them $10 million within 30 days. We have $2 million in our bank account.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:01:36 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:01:36
mfmindex.com№ 0000-3696
Story

The Iron Man heartbeat: the founder's conviction keeps the company alive

During the near-bankruptcy, Ali compared himself to Iron Man's artificial heart — the only thing keeping the company alive was employees seeing his conviction in the office, and if his heartbeat stopped for one beat, everyone would quit.

And in Iron Man, he's got sort of this artificial heart that's keeping him alive. And I felt like during this whole time period, the only thing that was keeping the company alive was people seeing me in the office, people seeing the level of conviction that I had, and that, uh, if my heart stopped beating for one beat, the company would die and, uh, everyone would quit and give up.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:05:29 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:05:29
mfmindex.com№ 0000-3929
Story

Put his last $1M into the company knowing he'd likely never see it again

Out of cash, Ali took a $1M windfall from his MoPub investment and put it into TinyCo behind $10M of SVB debt — financially the wrong call, but he needed to turn the card over and see if there was an ace in the hole.

And financially, I felt like it was the wrong decision to make. But emotionally I just felt like I need to see this through. I have come this far. Just need to see if this game is successful when we launch it. And I can't give up. And if what it takes is me putting this money in and losing it to find, to turn that card over and find out whether there's an ace in the hole or not, I gotta do it.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:09:51 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:09:51
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4191
Story

Went home and gave up — woke up to $400K in day-one revenue

On launch day, a bad Apple featuring spot made Ali conclude the company was dead. He went home, watched Netflix, and fell asleep — then woke to discover the game had generated $400,000 in revenue the prior day. It was working.

So I fall asleep, I wake up the next day, I immediately go to look at our stats and I'm like, oh, we just generated $400,000 in revenue yesterday. So this is working. Holy fuck. This is actually working. We're winning.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:12:22 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:12:22
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4342
Number

TinyCo sold at $85M revenue and $15M EBITDA

The Family Guy game went on to do $150-$200M in revenue. TinyCo sold the year it was doing about $85 million in revenue, $15 million in EBITDA, with roughly 150 employees.

$85M
Annual revenue at sale · USD/year
We sell the business. The year that we sell, we do— we're doing about $85 million in revenue, $15 million in EBITDA, about 150 people at the time.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:13:25 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:13:25
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4405
Story

The Native deodorant smell test: run a mile, sniff each other's armpits

Ali and his brother started Native by buying deodorants off Etsy, applying them under each armpit, running a mile, then sniffing each other's pits to find which one worked. Native was later sold to Procter & Gamble in a 9-figure deal.

So we put some of the deodorant that we bought from Etsy under each of our armpits. We go run a mile and then we sniff each other's armpit to see, is this deodorant actually good? Highly scientific. It's totally unscientific, but also very effective.

Steal thisValidate a physical product with the crudest possible real-world test before building any brand around it.

Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:14:30 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:14:30
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4470
Prediction
Pending

Genetics and body-hacking will define the next 20 years

Asked what he'd build at 21 today, Ali predicts the next 20 years will be about hacking our bodies and genetics — designing babies before birth and eliminating disease at the genetic level.

I think the next 20 years is going to be about hacking our bodies, hacking genetics, being able to sort of design babies before they're born, eliminate disease at the genetic level, that kind of thing.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:17:53 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:17:53
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4673
Prediction
Pending

Engineering is becoming a commodity; well-rounded founders win next

Ali's contrarian belief: engineering is becoming a commodity in Silicon Valley, and the next generation of entrepreneurs will be well-rounded generalists rather than necessarily technical founders.

One of the things I believe is that engineering is becoming a commodity in Silicon Valley. And that the next generation of entrepreneurs are going to be not necessarily technical, but people who are more well-rounded in their skill set.
Greatest Hits #1 - Turning it Around: F… · May 2021 · 1:18:25 · SULEMAN ALI
Read at 1:18:25
mfmindex.com№ 0000-4705